Sometimes we draw overly optimistic conclusions about a given matter and we do so through survivorship bias
We are going to discover what implications this logical error has and some of the most common scenarios in which we can observe this phenomenon, since we will see that it is not a bias that is more prevalent in a certain area but can occur in a whole variety of situations.
Survivorship bias or survivor bias is a type of failure in logical argumentation that leads us to focus only on the elements that have passed a certain selection, ignoring, on the contrary, all those who did not pass it. This limitation can make the observer completely ignore the mere existence of all those elements, which can sometimes be the majority or have interesting attributes that were lost in oblivion.
It’s not just about that mistake. In addition, survivorship bias can make us fall into unjustified optimism at times. And it is evaluating a certain situation taking into account only those people or elements that have surpassed the evaluation barrier or the selection process in question. Counting only on the characteristics or testimonies of those and not of the total number of participants may be a mistake.
To better understand what survivorship bias is about Let’s try to visualize it with an example Suppose we organize a car race and when it ends, we assume that the first three are, without a doubt, the best cars there are to compete. But a multitude of situations could have occurred that have caused the rest of the cars to be left behind.
For example, an accident may have occurred that has knocked out top-level cars. The tires chosen by some of the participants may not have been optimal to take advantage of the characteristics of the car and the circuit. They may even have been worse drivers and failed to exploit the potential of the vehicle, which could even have been better than that of the winners.
These are just some of the options for which we could easily be falling into survival bias, thinking that the cars in the first places are automatically the best. To reach such a statement we need to investigate in depth the characteristics, not only of them, but also of all the other participants. Only then will we be in a position to draw conclusions appropriately
Areas in which this logical error appears a lot
Survivorship bias is a phenomenon that can occur in practically any field. That is why we are going to make a compilation of some of them and thus be able to understand the magnitude of this logical fallacy and the dangers it entails if we are not aware of its effects.
1. On an economic level
Probably one of the most important scenarios to take into account the possible appearance of survivorship bias is the economic or financial one, since the consequences can be dire. In this case, said bias would refer to the exclusion in any type of report of all those companies or other types of organizations that have been closed
Therefore, information relating to a multitude of companies that, having gone bankrupt, would not add up to certain statistics and indicators, which would be composed only of those that are still standing, would be left out of focus. It would be one of the cases in which a large amount of information, sometimes very important, would be ignored.
2. At a historical level
We have all heard the statement that history is written by the victors. In a way, it is a way of expressing the effect of survivorship bias on historical events. In these cases, for example, It is usually the winning side of the conflict that is in charge of shaping the story about the war they have fought for, its origins and its consequences
Sometimes this account is reasonably objective, but in others it represents a real puzzle for historians, who have to study the documents in great detail to ensure that the events occurred as that party maintains. Assuming there are still documents to investigate, then uninteresting evidence about a past that “never” occurred can also be eliminated.
We cannot forget that survivorship bias also applies to people themselves and of course to their careers. For every great footballer, famous actor, renowned writer or reputed manager, there are thousands who, having similar characteristics, failed on the same path.
In this case, Considering only the qualities of those who achieved success as an infallible formula would be a mistake since we would be leaving out of focus a multitude of variables, many of them uncontrollable or random, which surely had a lot to say in the failure of the rest.
4. On the quality of the goods
Sometimes we have the feeling that objects, clothing or machinery created today are deliberately designed to last a certain time. They call it planned obsolescence. The argument is that there are elements of the same genre but created a long time ago that still maintain their qualities.
Here there would be a case of survival bias, since we would be focusing on the specific example and ignoring the immense number of elements of the same type that never reached our days. If we took into account the total number of objects created in a certain era and could establish statistics on those that have demonstrated their durability and those that have not, perhaps our opinion would change.
Surely we would realize that In reality, only those products designed with very specific characteristics have lasted longer than usual and on the contrary, there have been many who have not been able to withstand the passage of time as well as those minority cases.
5. Regarding architecture
Surely the reader will have the well-founded impression that old buildings tend to be much more beautiful than modern ones. Does this mean that absolutely all the constructions that were carried out in past times were majestic and also tremendously resistant? Absolutely. That would, without a doubt, fall into survivorship bias.
How then can we explain that all (or almost all) the old buildings preserved in cities are noticeably prettier than the newer ones? Due to the constant renewal processes that cities undergo every few decades. This means that most buildings have an expiration date, except for those that are especially notable due to their characteristics.
Therefore, these usually become part of the heritage and it is about restoring them whenever possible rather than tearing them down and replacing them with others. That is the origin of the survival bias, since it gives rise to thinking that only ancient buildings last, without taking into account that for each one that has survived to our time, there are hundreds that were reduced to rubble.
6. In war strategies
One of the strategies that the US Army carried out during World War II was to study the bullet impacts that its bombers received during aerial battles, to especially protect the areas where the most bullets were observed. It seemed like a brilliant strategy, but it was overlooking a key factor: all the planes shot down in combat.
The fact of not being able to study the destroyed aircraft made it impossible to verify where precisely those that suffered the most serious damage received the shots. Therefore, this is a clear case of survivorship bias.
7. The seven lives of cats
Who doesn’t know the popular saying that cats have seven lives? One of the evidence that is usually given to support this statement is that cats usually survive falls from great heights. How do you know this? Because veterinarians usually treat specimens of these animals that have suffered injuries from a fall from several floors.
But this is another case of survival bias, since we are only evaluating the cases of cats that survive falls, leaving aside all the cases of cats that, unfortunately, are not so lucky and die from the consequences of falling into the void. . It is likely that the number of the latter is greater, but since they are omitted from the statistics, we continue to think that cats have seven lives.
