The search for certainty and the illusion of knowing what will happen tomorrow is something that has accompanied philosophical reflections and scientific practices over time.
If we could be certain that tomorrow it would rain, or a war would break out, the decisions we would make today would surely be very different from those we would choose without knowledge of the future. The Demon of Laplace is a character that represents all this very well Where does it come from?
The illusion of predicting and controlling what surrounds us is a theme that we can find in much of scientific development. For example, classical mechanics was based on the idea that everything that exists in the universe and nature can be known through logical mathematical reasoning, as well as through a geometric system to measure and predict what will happen.
In other words, The mechanics class starts from considering that the universe and nature are governed by a series of initial laws that can be revealed by human beings for modification.
For example, modern astronomy in the West, inaugurated by Newton, has this position as a precedent.
Who was Pierre Laplace?
Pierre Laplace was a French astronomer, physicist and mathematician who lived from 1749 to 1826 He is credited with the development of celestial mechanics, he worked alongside Isaac Newton and Galileo in predicting eclipses and discovering new planets. He also participated in the study of some gas molecules and atomic particles.
What Laplace suggested from his knowledge is that, through science, we can predict and guess the activity of all the behavioral systems that exist. And if not, the unpredictability would only be an error of knowledge that, as such, can be corrected.
In Laplace’s deterministic conception everything can be predicted and if this is not the case, it is because the knowledge produced by human beings has erred or is not sufficient.
What this means is that everything that exists in the universe is structured prior to and independent of the activity of human beings, with which our own actions and everything we are would be predetermined by the laws of the universe.
The deterministic demon (by Laplace)
Laplace’s Demon is an imaginary character who has the power to know the initial properties of all the particles of nature and the universe, with such precision that he can apply natural laws to guess what will happen instantly or, in a long time. time; from a precise movement to a work of art (Calabrese, 1999).
It is in other words, Laplace’s Demon is a deterministic and all-powerful demon a being that is external to the universe and that has predicted and decided everything that will happen in nature, including, of course, the activity of human beings.
The logic of prediction was not only transcendental in astronomy, physical sciences, mathematics and natural sciences, but it has extended to the study of human behavior as well as its intervention.
For example, it has been present in the development of modern medicine, and we could even see how it impacted the traditional way of doing human sciences, as well as economic and financial activity. However, since the development of new scientific paradigms, Laplace’s Demon has encountered some limits.
From determinism to indeterminism: the end of certainty
The logic of prediction was especially successful as long as the universe was understood in terms of linear systems, based on a stable cause-effect relationship. But, when chaos theory and quantum mechanics came to challenge the linearity of all systems, the scientific field also questioned the insistence on applying the logic of prediction to everything we know.
In very broad terms and among other things, there was a paradigm shift from considering that in non-linear systems (which are complex systems, with chaotic and non-cyclical behavior, as in human beings), the initial state is not equal to the final state nor determine it, therefore, they are systems that cannot be predicted.
In the field of science, The universe and nature in general are no longer conceived as a set of general laws, pre-established by an external being This is how, from the beginning of the 20th century, there is an important shift where it is considered that, although it is possible to calculate probabilities, there can always be prediction failures. From this, some authors consider that an era marked by the end of certainty is inaugurated, especially in the human and social sciences.
