Planning Fallacy: What It Is And How It Affects Us
People have the need to set short, medium and long-term goals. These can be achieved when we have a good organization of our activities.
On the other hand, not managing our time properly ends up harming our ability to complete our personal projects within the time frame we want. The planning fallacy is a peculiar phenomenon which turns out to be an influential variable when making an estimate to achieve our projects. In this article we will explain what the planning fallacy is about, how to recognize it and control it.
The planning fallacy is a phenomenon that has been studied by various disciplines such as economics, statistics, psychology, etc. This difficulty It was first coined by the economist and psychologist Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1979 to describe people who have a tendency in organizations to overestimate the time a task will take, even taking into account that similar tasks in the past have taken longer.
The planning fallacy turns out to be a peculiar phenomenon or bias, which tends to influence when we make an estimate on the development of our projects The greatest difficulty when planning a project arises when estimating the cost and the time it may take to complete it.
The difficulty begins during the initial estimation process, with the appearance of a bias that ends up influencing our way of perceiving reality. In other words, this bias has to do with the high optimism of estimation that we give to the duration of an activity (we believe we will do it quickly), task or project that we have to carry out. Consequently, by having expectations that do not conform to reality, people do not complete the activity within the given deadlines.
On the other hand, the planning fallacy has to do with the phenomenon in which plans end up not matching facts, particularly this difficulty occurs in terms of time. It is important to point out that the planning fallacy occurs in the personal and work sphere. This inconsistency between what we want to do (plans) and its development has consequences in terms of time, efficiency and productivity, since the person who does not make a real estimate of time will present deficiencies in these variables. Finally, the individual ends up being detrimentally affected emotionally by presenting the difficulties generated by the planning fallacy.
Origin of the term
At the beginning of the industrial era, people began to talk about the planning fallacy, although that name was not used specifically. There was a time when industrial production became very important, and production time was added to it. That is why the main objective of all industries was to produce the maximum amount of products in a shorter amount of time. Since then, both at the individual and organizational levels, planning became a relevant activity. Thus, in 1979, Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman supported the existence of the phenomenon titled “planning fallacy.” These authors understood that this difficulty was very common among people and that behind it there was a cognitive bias, a self-deception related to the limitations of our perception of reality.
What are the characteristics of the planning fallacy?
As time has passed, a detail has been discovered about the characterization of the phenomenon known as the planning fallacy. Nowadays, it is known that it is an illusory perception of time that favors errors in the planning of tasks, plans or projects. We can also understand it as a cognitive bias or self-deception that misleads us when estimating the time of an activity. Next, we will go on to detail the main characteristics of the planning fallacy.
1. Tendency to think in a very optimistic scenario regarding the progress of the work
With the passage of time it has been detected that at the time of planning a person tends to present a very optimistic visualization of the scenario where the activities, plan, project, etc. are going to be developed. In other words, the individual conceives the idea and plans or projects from the conception that everything will happen normally, without mishaps, without unforeseen events or unfavorable eventualities This definitely does not end up adjusting to reality many times, because as we know, it is not unusual that in the course of some planning an unforeseen event may arise.
Illusionary thinking has to do with the approach that gives greater influence to one’s desire over objective reality. In other words, the person will end up thinking with the desire they have, subtracting greater value from the real circumstances of the environment or what it would really cost to develop the activity, task or project they have in mind. We could also understand that the person lets themselves be carried away by emotions and “wishful thinking”, through the strong desire to be able to do the activity forgetting about the possible negative possibilities that may arise along the way.
3. Your own performance is overestimated
At the moment when one begins to plan the project or task that one wishes to carry out, an inadequate interpretation of one’s performance occurs, since will value your skills and/or abilities positively or very favorably, thinking that they will be able to assume the task in a very perfect way, very fluidly and of course, in a very short time. This difficulty of overestimating one’s own performance becomes a central factor that occurs in the planning fallacy and ends up damaging when the individual collides with reality.
Consequences of the planning fallacy
The main negative consequence promoted by the planning fallacy is inadequate time management and estimation. The aforementioned brings with it an inadequate management of resources, in the same way, it implies a poor evaluation of the person’s own performance, as well as their expectations that are far from reality.
1. Failure to comply with established deadlines
By making wrong estimates, Most likely, people will not be able to perform and complete the task at the projected time That is why they do not end up keeping their word or end up projecting an image of a lying or irresponsible person. Many times not meeting these deadlines generates conflict with others and with oneself.
It is necessary to point out that the most serious thing would be the cost on the negative consequences on the emotional level
In short, the planning fallacy brings with it a very high feeling of frustration that is often detrimental to the health of the person who suffers from it. Failure to meet the estimates that a person has projected produces discomfort and physical and psychological tension.
How to avoid the planning fallacy?
The way to avoid the phenomenon of planning fallacy is to take into consideration past or previous experiences, in order to rethink this overestimation of time, our skills and abilities, adjusting them more to the reality of the context. In this way we can make a more realistic estimate of the time we would have to carry out an activity and also consider unforeseen events. In this way we can avoid falling into this cognitive bias and in the same way we will avoid falling into frustration and tension that cause discomfort in our body.
When making an estimate It is important to consider all possible scenarios, not just the favorable assumptions It is important to consider objectivity, leaving aside our emotions or good desires to start the activity. Likewise, it is perhaps necessary to take as a reference those experiences of people who have already been able to carry out the same activity or project, asking them how long it may have taken them to complete the same task.
