The Gambler’s Fallacy: What It Is And How It Affects Us
No matter how hard we try, people’s reasoning does not always follow a logical basis. On a large number of occasions, we are so absolutely convinced of the validity and reasonableness of our reasoning that we end up making countless mistakes.
This is what happens with the gambler’s fallacy. A type of erroneous thinking related to gambling and probability that can lead people to the point of losing large amounts of money in casinos and gambling. Next, we analyze this phenomenon.
Before delving into the description of the gambler’s fallacy, we must know what exactly the term fallacy consists of. The fallacy concept belongs to the field of study of logic and the debate about these dates back to the time of Aristotle.
Although there is no absolute consensus about the specific definition of this concept, we can describe a fallacy as an argument that may seem valid but, in reality, is not. Sometimes these fallacies can be generated intentionally with the aim of deceiving or manipulating other people, while in others they are committed unconsciously, due to an error in reasoning or ignorance.
At first glance it may seem that a fallacy is easy to detect, but the reality is that sometimes these deceptions or errors in reasoning are so subtle that a lot of attention is needed to identify them, which leads people to make erroneous decisions.
Furthermore, the fact that an argument is considered a fallacy, also called a fallacious argument, It does not necessarily imply that their hypotheses or assumptions are neither true nor false. It is possible that reasoning based on true hypotheses is a fallacious judgment, since what makes it false is the invalidity of the reasoning itself.
Once we understand the meaning of the concept of fallacy, it may be easier for us to understand what the player’s fallacy is based on. This deception, also known as the gambler’s fallacy or Monte Carlo fallacy, due to its relationship with games of chance, consists of a logical fallacy by which people mistakenly believe that past random events influence or affect random events. futures.
For example, if we throw a die and the number three comes up, it is very possible that, due to the player’s fallacy, we will end up the conclusion that it is quite unlikely that this same number will appear again in a second printing ; when, in reality, the probabilities are the same.
Because this type of logic deception is associated with the world of betting and games of chance, its main consequence is usually some type of economic loss on the part of the person who is the victim of the fallacy.
The wrong ideas contained in this logical error
As we have already mentioned, the main deception within the gambler’s fallacy consists of believing that a past random event determines the outcome of a future random event. However, there are some other misconceptions locked within it. These are the following.
1. A random event is more likely to occur because it has not occurred for a period of time.
For example, if we return to the case of the dice, this fallacy can lead us to think that if the number 3 has never come up when throwing the die 10 times, it is more likely that it will come up on the next roll. But in reality, taking this number or any other has the same probability.
2. A random event is less likely to occur because it has occurred over a period of time
In this case the opposite phenomenon occurs. If in a series of dice rolls, the number 3 has appeared numerous times, the player’s fallacy leads us to think that it is less likely to appear on the next roll.
Another way to see it is when purchasing a lottery ticket. People are usually reluctant to buy tickets with repeated numbers. For example, anyone will choose 74398 rather than 01011. The reason is that False logic makes us think that it is very unlikely that so many repeated or consecutive numbers will appear.
3. A random event is less likely to occur if it occurred recently
For this fallacy we can use the example of lotteries. If in the previous lottery draw the winning number was 18245, it is very possible for lottery players to fall for deception that this one will not come up again in the next draw. However, the reality is that, although it may seem strange, the same possibilities exist.
4. A random event is more likely to occur if it did not occur recently
Finally, this false belief is the opposite equivalent of the previous one. On this occasion, the player’s fallacy leads us to think, for example, that if in the game of roulette during the last spin the ball landed on red, it is more likely that it will now land on black.
What consequences does this fallacy have?
Although, once explained, anyone may think that they would not fall for this type of deception. It is extraordinary to see how this type of fallacy It affects and conditions us much more than we think.
These erroneous thoughts appear unconsciously. One of the characteristics of this gambler’s fallacy is that people think we are better at calculating probabilities than we really are.
The absolute conviction of the previous erroneous ideas, can lead people to lose large sums of money or even property. Let us not forget that games of chance can be addictive and that there are increasingly more betting and chance games in which a person can participate without leaving their living room.
If to the addiction that these games generate, we add the fact that no person is free from the influence of the gambler’s fallacy, we will obtain as a result a large number of people losing large sums of money without being aware of the thinking errors that they cause. They are leading them to it.
