Affective Prediction: a Very Useful Mental Skill

Human beings have the capacity to feel an immense amount of emotions that overwhelm us and condition us when making any type of decision. When these emotions happen in the past, they can be so intensely recorded that we can remember them no matter how much time passes. But what about future emotions?

Some studies have attempted to study our ability to determine future emotions, giving the concept of affective prediction. In this article we will talk about this skill, as well as the specific factors and possible applications.

What is affective prediction?

Affective prediction or affective forecasting is a term used within psychology to define the ability of people to make predictions about their future affect or emotional state and the consequences of these.

The term was coined by psychologists Timothy Wilson and Daniel Gilbert following their research on this ability. While early research focused solely on measuring emotional predictions, later studies began to examine the accuracy and predictability of these forecasts.

Limited mental ability

The results revealed that people We are tremendously clumsy when trying to predict our emotional states. Due to the large number of cognitive biases we have, such as focusing, empathy gap and impact bias, we are virtually unable to determine exactly how, when and with what intensity we will experience our emotions in the future.

The reason is that the feelings experienced in the present interfere and blind us when it comes to making decisions in the future, when we could feel very different than we think we will.

We find an example when asking people how they think they would feel if they won the lottery. People most likely overestimate future positive feelings, ignoring a host of factors that can influence their emotional state outside of winning the lottery.

However, studies revealed that people were able to predict the affective valence of their future emotions. That is, we know whether a future action or event will be positive or not. Also we are quite skilled at identifying the emotions we will have; for example, knowing that we will feel happy after a compliment.

However, these predictions are not always correct. That is, people are not right about their future emotions in 100% of cases. Likewise, we are much less accurate when trying to predict the intensity and duration of our future emotions.

What aspects of emotion can we predict?

Affective prediction can be divided into four components or factors for which people have greater or lesser ability to predict. These factors are:

1. Affective valence

In psychology it is known as affective valence. the emotional value we place on a person, object, or situation. In the specific case of affective prediction, it manifests itself in the ability to know if a person or event will bring us positive or negative emotions. Whatever they are.

Studies reveal that people are very skilled at predicting this factor, which means that we are quite clear about what things generate positive emotions and we value them as such, and what other things provoke negative emotions and produce feelings of aversion.

2. Specific emotions

Predicting valence is not enough. In addition to this, people feel the need to know exactly what specific emotions we experience with certain situations or people.

Generally, we have the ability to predict our specific emotions most of the time. We are aware of what circumstances make us happy and what others generate feelings of anguish, fear or anxiety.

However, this is not always easy since on many occasions we can experience a mix of emotions that They don’t always seem to be compatible. For example, if we find a good job offer, but it is abroad, we may feel happy and excited about starting a new life and having a good job, but on the other hand we may feel a little sad about having to leave our loved ones. our family and friends.

3. Intensity and duration of emotions

Finally, the third factor studied in Wilson and Gilbert’s research was people’s ability to predict the intensity of emotions, as well as their duration.

The results determined that we can fairly accurately predict both the affective valence and the specific emotions we will experience in the future. However, when it comes to predicting the intensity and duration of emotions, the data reveal that we are not so skilled.

Research has shown that people we tend to overestimate the duration of our future emotional reactions, a phenomenon known as durability bias. In the same way, when we try to predict how intense our emotions will be, we also make the mistake of overestimating this intensity. In this case the error is due to impact bias.

What applications can it have?

Although affective forecasting has been studied mostly within the field of psychology, There are many other areas such as the economic, the legal, the field of medical care or happiness research

An example of the application of affective prediction studies, in a field other than that of psychology, is found in the interest that legal theorists show in the tendency that we manifest to underestimate our capacity to adapt to events that represent a change. in our life, since this makes them question the assumptions behind damages awards.

In the same way, this capacity is also currently being studied by health theorists or analysts, since most of the crucial decisions made regarding health depend on the patient’s perception of their future quality of life.