Inference Process: What It Is, Characteristics And Stages
Within psychology, the term “inference” has been used quite frequently, the process through which people are able to derive our conclusions from a series of premises, these being a series of propositions that are given prior to a argument.
The inference process involves making the decision about what information should be gathered around a specific topic or issue, as well as collecting said information and combining it in some way. Inference is a widely used tool within social psychology when influencing other people’s social knowledge.
In this article we will explain what the inference process consists of and how it can be put into practice in different areas (social, clinical inference, etc.).
The inference process has the implication of making the decision about what information should be gathered on a specific topic, as well as collecting that information and combining it in some way Within social psychology, the term social inference process has been used to refer to the way in which people are able to perceive, retain and use social information.
Social knowledge, widely studied within social psychology, often implies that the observer has to go beyond the information at his disposal, so he must form impressions, carry out judgments and evaluations, as well as must carry out an inference process.
The inference process became extremely important in the development of the theory of social cognition by Fiske and Taylor, who defined the concept of social cognition as that set of processes through which human beings are capable of analyze, interpret, remember and even interpret information about the social world This intervenes in the way we think about ourselves, about others, and also about interpersonal relationships, as well as the way we make sense of all the above information.
The product of the inference process is the result of a reasoning process developed during said process. For the inference process to be carried out, there are usually 3 phases sequentially, which we will briefly explain in the following subsection.
Phases of the inference process
Some authors who have carried out their research on the inference process defend that for it to be developed correctly, it must necessarily go through 3 phases sequentially, so we would be talking about a theory or normative model.
Below we will concisely explain what each of those phases that must be developed in the inference process consists of.
1. Information collection
The first phase of the inference process would be the one that consists of collecting information. The first thing a subject, the social perceiver, must do during this process is scrutinize and weigh all that relevant information before reaching conclusions
However, it is worth mentioning that there is evidence that the decision-making process regarding which information is most relevant It is usually influenced by the subject’s previous expectations (because of the knowledge that was activated).
2. Sampling of information
Secondly, we are faced with the information sampling phase during the inference process, a moment that It occurs when the person has already managed to decide which is the most relevant information, so these data must be subjected to sampling
In this process, Fiske and Taylor state that if they provide us with an adequate sample, we normally use it quite correctly, but when one must select the sample oneself, it is common to make an error, such as one of the following: We will comment below:
One of those mistakes would be not paying enough attention to the sample size so it could be out of adjustment enough for the research to be valid.
Another error would be the fact that get carried away by extreme examples Finally, a fairly common error would be the one made when using samples that are biased (there have been cases in which the biased nature of the sample had been warned and it was still used for research.
In the third phase of the inference process, a series of mechanisms and rules are used that allow combining all the information available with the purpose of carrying out two essential forms of operations.
3.1 Establishing relationships between events
First of all, we will mention the operation known as “establishing relationships between events”, which consists of perform a covariation diagnosis To do this, the relevant data should be available, since there may be a strong influence of the previous beliefs of the social perceivers (illusory correlation).
3.2 The estimation of probabilities in the inference process
Second is the operation known as “probability estimation”, where Several difficulties are identified that could arise, such as a “calculation bias” produced by the representativeness heuristic because this heuristic provides the subject with a quick solution. Another error could be made due to errors in the calculation of joint probabilities, ignorance of prior probabilities (base rate) and difficulties in information management.
The corresponding inferences
Another inference process is what is known as the “theory of corresponding inferences”, developed by Jones and Davis which refers to the fact that the fundamental objectives of the inference process are to make predictions (a series of personal or internal attributions in order to predict behavior).
The objective of this inference process is to give an explanation of why people make external or internal attributions A person compares his or her actions with other available alternatives in order to evaluate the decisions that have been made. Furthermore, taking into account various factors, a person cannot decide whether his actions have been caused by an internal disposition or not.
According to this theory, the corresponding inferences constitute an inference process that serves to directly infer a characteristic or personal disposition of another subject or group of subjects from the behaviors that have been observed Of course, in order for the corresponding inference to occur there must be an intention, since this is a precondition.
When trying to assign a series of characteristics to a specific person, this depends on a series of variables. Likewise, there is a problem when it comes to being able to carry out an inference process in order to accurately define intentions because it is not easy at all, since for each observed action there may be a wide variety of possible motivations.
You may be interested: “Theories of causal attribution: definition and authors”
The clinical inference process
The clinical inference process is the one used within clinical or health psychology when developing a series of hypotheses and clinical judgments by the therapist in order to decode information about the patient.
Within the clinical inference process there are mainly 2 types of inference that therapists can use when treating their patients in consultation.
1. Diagnostic inference
The diagnostic inference would be made framing the detected symptoms into a diagnostic category through the problems expressed by the patient.
2. Prognostic inference
This second type of inference is the one applied by the clinician in order to be able to carry out some assessments about the future course of treatment and the possible effectiveness of the therapy, in order to apply the one that best suits the particular case of each patient. In this case, the predisposition on the part of the patient himself to start said treatment also influences, since if there is not enough, the prognosis would be less favorable.
3. Prognosis in the therapeutic process
The patient’s prognosis in the therapeutic process is a type of inference carried out by the therapist based on the course of the disorder before, during and after treatment has been completed
