The Law Of Unintended Consequences: What It Is And What It Explains
Given the change, it is likely that different results will be generated. And if it occurs in a large and complex environment, which affects a large number of people, negative consequences are likely to appear; This situation is what arises from the law of unintended consequences.
This thought that change brings negative results is usually defended by conservative positions. But the truth is that the consequences achieved can also be positive, and as such we must consider the possibility of these beneficial results occurring.
In this article you will learn what is meant by the law of unforeseen consequences what types of unexpected consequences exist, as well as what strategies can be useful to reduce or control them.
The law of unintended consequences refers to the lack of foresight or anticipation of results or consequences, especially when they arise in a large environment, that is, one in which more people intervene. Specifically, he points out that Human actions tend to generate consequences that were not considered, especially if these behaviors overlap with each other by being emitted by several individuals
It is obvious to think that if more subjects participate or are affected, it will be more difficult to predict the consequences. However, there is also a greater tendency to contemplate possible negative results. In this way, it is understood that When faced with a complex situation, if something can go wrong, it will go wrong
Given the approach of this law, the idea that it is better not to risk change and maintain a conservative attitude is justified or reinforced. But on the contrary, this belief is not always fulfilled, since changes can lead to progress, and can also generate positive consequences.
How can situations with unforeseen consequences be generated?
We have seen that situations that are linked to the law of unforeseen consequences are characterized by being imprecise and by the possibility of leading to different results. So, There are different events or situations where unforeseen consequences are more likely to appear
Examples of these situations could be: the impossibility of predicting the long-term effects that a change may entail; not clearly defining the change you want to achieve; the appearance of a new situation that involves modification in the environment; or even the resistance itself to the change occurring can lead to unforeseen consequences.
The different types of unforeseen consequences
As we have mentioned, unforeseen consequences can be multiple, and positive or negative results can be observed. Below we will see the different unforeseen consequences that have been observed. In most cases they are due to the result obtained from the approval of a law by the country, in situations where many people are involved.
1. Positive unintended consequences
Unforeseen positive results are also known as serendipity. A serendipity is a discovery made incidentally without seeking such a result ; On many occasions the subject had another purpose and without looking for it found an unforeseen positive consequence.
Known examples of serendipity that have been a great advance for humanity on different occasions are: penicillin, discovered by Alenxader Fleming (and which turned out to combat a type of bacteria, being considered the first antibiotic), or X-rays, discovered by Wilhelm Conrad Rontgen, which currently allow the performance of such important techniques as computerized tomography (CT).
Likewise, approving change does not always generate negative consequences, sometimes it leads to obtaining a more positive situation. For example, in a study carried out in the United States on the effects of the legalization of the abortion law, it was observed that in countries where abortion was accepted, the crime rate decreased. Regulating an action instead of prohibiting it is sometimes a better decision to achieve positive consequences.
2. Negative unforeseen consequences
Negative unforeseen consequences can appear as a result of an action that was initially intended to obtain positive consequences, that is, a change was produced with the hope that the resulting situation would be better. But as we have already said and as the law of unforeseen consequences itself indicates, the results obtained may be very different from those expected and as such we cannot be sure what we will finally achieve even if our intention is good.
As examples of this type of consequences we can cite the appearance of pests, or conversely the disappearance of an animal that performed a necessary function for our ecosystem These events may have good intentions, but the effects on ecosystems are usually negative. This occurred with the introduction of rabbits that was carried out in Australia with the purpose of increasing hunting: what was achieved was the appearance of a plague, since they reproduced excessively as they had few predators.
Another similar event, with good intentions, was the elimination of sparrows in China to prevent them from eating the plantations and reducing the transmission of diseases. The final result was an increase in worms that devoured the crop, which in the first instance were controlled because they were food for the sparrows.
3. Perverse results
In the case of perverse results we observe that the consequences obtained are totally contrary to those intended In other words, the intention that the subject had gives rise to a panorama completely opposite to that expected or desired.
An example of these types of results is the increase in the incidence of serious crimes as a result of increasing the punishment for minor crimes with the intention of reducing crime. Criminals increased the severity of their actions, since all types of crimes were punished intensely.
Another situation in which we observed that the implementation of a law with the intention of reducing harm produces more harm was the campaign to reduce the use of automobiles promoted by Mexico City and Bogotá; Contrary to reducing the use of cars, the inhabitants bought other cars, in most cases older and more polluting, to be able to continue moving with their transport. The result was an increase in private vehicles and consequently an increase in pollution
How to avoid compliance with the Law of Unintended Consequences?
It is impossible to completely avoid the law of unforeseen consequences, but we can make some strategies or be more forward-looking with the intention of reduce the probability of obtaining negative results We will try to make the results more predictable or at least take into account and evaluate the different alternatives.
In this way, we offer you different tips that may be useful for this purpose.
1. Try to think about the long-term effects
It is normal that when we consider a change or an action that has consequences, it is difficult for us to visualize the results that can be produced in the long term and we focus only on those that will be generated more recently. But to reduce the effect of the law of unforeseen consequences, we must evaluate all the possibilities at different, more or less recent moments.
A technique that can be useful is to apply the 10-10-10 rule, whose purpose is to assess the results that can occur after 10 days, 10 months and 10 years. This rule is adaptable depending on the situation, so we can lengthen or reduce the established time.
Related article: “The delay of gratification and the ability to resist impulses”
2. Multiply the worst option by 4
This strategy consists of put ourselves in the worst situation and assess whether if it occurred we could cope with it It is common that when we want to make a change, the positive results weigh more on us, that is, we take more into account the positive consequences and do not properly value the negative ones, trying to ignore them.
In this way, intensely increasing negative results helps us decide whether it is worth taking the risk or not.
3. Try to imagine what would happen if you did nothing
This technique points out the importance of assess how necessary it is to immediately carry out the action or, on the contrary, whether we can wait When we are not sure if the change is the best alternative or what consequences may occur, if we can, we will choose to wait a while to see how the situation evolves and if it is possible to achieve greater security before executing the action. It may be best to wait.
4. Take into account and evaluate the possibility of each alternative
When we consider the different possibilities that a behavior can entail we must take into account not only the severity but also the possibility of each That is, we know that the consequences are unpredictable, but if we evaluate each one we observe that some are more probable than others. Thus, there are alternatives such as suffering a plane accident that are less likely than having a car accident and, therefore, we must assess this difference.
5. You can remedy the decision
A factor that we must also consider is If the decision we will make can have a solution if the expected results are not achieved or if the consequences are negative If this is the case and there is a remedy, the risk of executing it will be less serious or intense.
